The Alliance of Sahel States: Between Sovereignty and Fragility

The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) - bringing together Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso - marks one of the most consequential geopolitical shifts in West Africa in recent decades. Emerging from deep disillusionment with ECOWAS and long-standing external interventions, the alliance reflects a renewed assertion of sovereignty, alongside profound political, economic, and security fragilities.

This analysis examines what is driving the AES, why it matters now, and how it could reshape the future of the Sahel and wider West Africa. It explores the alliance’s roots in postcolonial political economy, its break with established regional and global governance structures, and the tensions between aspirations for autonomy and the realities of debt, climate vulnerability, insecurity, and institutional fragility.

The paper also considers the broader implications of the AES for regional integration, African agency, climate–security dynamics, and shifting global power alignments, raising critical questions about whether this experiment in sovereignty can evolve into a durable and inclusive governance model.

We invite policymakers, civil society actors, researchers, and stakeholders to engage with this analysis and reflect on what the AES signals for the future of sovereignty, regionalism, and development in Africa.

For further information or inquiries, please contact us at info@surgeafrica.org.